Punjab Election : Result and Aftermath

The Story So Far

AAP winning landslide in Punjab is making disproportionate hype in the media. Now quite obviously, the Delhi-based greenhorn trumpeting this with deafening volume to win election elsewhere. They did the same after winning the Delhi assembly election in 2013. Those who follow political news and AAP very casually, it’s no doubt a big win for them. But the fact is Punjab is the only state that gave AAP representation in Lok-Sabha in 2014 when AAP could not open its account elsewhere in India with most of its leaders lost miserably including their convenor Arvind Kejriwal. In spite of their consecutive victory in the Delhi assembly, they could never win a single seat in Delhi Parliamentary election in both 2014 and 2019.

The volatility of Punjab politics continues since ’80s, support for the Khalistani Movement, Operation Blue-Star, and the Assassination of Ms.Gandhi, Anti Sikh Riot always occupied popular Punjabi sentiment to date. In the last 3 decades, normalcy prevailed with the mainstreaming of Punjabis in successive Akali and Congress Governments. In spite of veiled distrust with Hindus in general and Congress in specific, the pragmatism of a peaceful co-existence always motivated Sikhs to remain accomplices to the story of the new Punjab.

During Narasimha Rao Government, the then State DGP KPS Gill was primarily credited in bringing back peace in the state which was deeply hurt by successive events that almost pushed the state into terrorism. Against the backdrop of the so-called popular sentiments of a demography (60%) that always decides who will rule the state, Akalis were always the natural choice. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has its roots in Shiromani Gurudwara Prabandhan Committee (SGPC), the top body that controls Sikh Gurudwaras across the world. Very true to that assessment, since 1997 in the post normalcy era Akali’s ruled Punjab for 3 terms for 15 out of 25 years till date.

Captain Amarinder Singh led Congress remained unblemished in both the terms compared to Akali’s tenure, who took the public support for granted and got deeply entangled with corruptions and drugs. Though better election management helped Akali repeat its victory in 2012 but there was a very strong sentiment brewing against them which Congress was not able to capture. The 2014 general election gave Aam Admi Party a perfect stage to launch its unit in a state outside Delhi. They secured 24% vote in their maiden election electing at least 4 MPs to the lower house. A big chunk of disenchanted Punjabi voters who were disappointed with SAD and Congress both believed in AAP’s appeal. The political precariousness along with the issues of rampant corruption and drug issue helped AAP build its base in Punjab politics.

Come 2017 state election, the writing on the wall was quite clear, the popular sentiment against SAD was strong enough to overthrow them from the state assembly. However, Captain and Congress got their act together to deflect AAP from claiming the stake. The popular media left no stone unturned to defame further the SAD+BJP Government but this did not help the AAP much. Captain fought the election as his last and with a hope to get everything right that went wrong in the past 10 years.

Kejriwal’s indecisiveness to name anyone as CM candidate, not only exposed his secret agenda to become Punjab CM from backdoor also his insecurity for another leader growing to become bigger than him managing a proper state like Punjab. Punjabi voters could not digest this and brought Captain back to power with a thumping majority. Kejriwal’s AAP was made to become a distant second with the consolation of Leader of Opposition (LOP).

The SAD was so discredited that they were even dislodged from LOP which continues to be the case even now with the 2022 assembly election. BJP smelled this much before, it’s now very tough to come back for SAD in Punjab. In 2014 and in 2017 had the BJP fought the election separately the results would have been much different, maybe they would have formed Government there now.

The popular votes secured by the top 3 opposition parties suggest clearly that in spite of the hyped farmers' protest and their anger against BJP/RSS, the party ruling the centre garnered more votes than the last election. The BJP fighting alone without a strong ally and securing more than 1 million votes suggests more about its future potential. However, the opposition space is so crowded the road ahead will also be difficult for all. The most interesting factor is now opposition votes being perpetually fragmented (no hope for future alliance) the ruling party may have a cakewalk like in Delhi and Odisha.    

 Popular Votes (in Lakhs)

Congress	SAD	BJP
35.76	28.61	10.27

How to lose a winning match

Rahul Gandhi must be very busy now scripting the Punjab election. How does Congress clinch an impossible lose from the clutches of a sure victory? If we go just a year back, we will realise there was not much negative public emotion against Captain. There were disgruntled leaders but Captain would have still sailed it through the 2022 election maybe with a narrower margin. So Rahul Gandhi instead of placating Captain, dishonorably dislodged him to the extent that Captain at the sunset of his career left Congress to join BJP camp just to teach Congress a lesson. They brought Sidhu to be in charge of Punjab and made Channi CM. At the time when Siddhu became party chief, he had only one agenda to become CM of Punjab no matter what. But who knows if he was in collision with Kejriwal to defeat Congress. Many a time he served resignation to take that back again, he was never at peace with the CMs be that Captain or Channi. A lot of times he gave the impression that he was about to join AAP but the deal was not breaking maybe he wanted to be declared as the CM candidate there. Being state party president in Punjab he relentlessly worked as the leader of opposition which confused the voters more against Congress. On top of that when BJP along with Captain upped the ante the voters sitting on the fence decided for AAP to hand them over a clear majority in the state assembly. So AAP should thank Siddhu and his godfather Rahul Gandhi for their victory.      

The real problem starts now

Bhagwant Mann the CM to be was a career comedian with no administrative experience, will now have to manage a comparatively difficult state with a range of legacy issues. Arvind Kejriwal has a long record of not tolerating the political growth of his own colleagues. In order to win Punjab at any cost they promised the moon to the voter, but Punjab is not Delhi where unemployment is a major issue.     

Governance

The problem will start on day 1 of Bhagwant Maan in CM’s office, unlike Kejriwal who was from an IRS background, Mann is new and administrative goof-up is very likely. So how he distributes the portfolios and runs the government will be subject to public scrutiny in the light of the entire spectrum of political stalwarts seating in the opposition bench. In Delhi Kejriwal never takes responsibility for anything, it’s always the Central Government or MCD that is responsible for any issue. But here the onus will be entirely on Maan and it will be difficult to run away from responsibility or deflect.

More so, Kejriwal’s approach to Punjab Government’s governance model and his intervention too will be watched. He is not a kind of a person who will give free hands to state leadership.

Let us see if Maan’s Government will be Government or Gourmint (as he used to joke गौरमिंट का मतलब - हर  मसले  पे  गौर  करके  एक  मिनट  में  भूल  जाना).

Poll Promise

They promised more than they can afford to lure the voters not to repeat the 2017 experience. However, in a state already reeling under huge debt, extravaganza on freebees will be an economic nightmare. This might also provide ammunition to the opposition camp if Maan fails to deliver on the promises.   

Party Affair

Post-2014 general election nation-wide debacle, Kejriwal disbanded all their state party units with leaders like Yogendra Yadav, Mayank Gandhi, Captain Gopinath, Bhusan Father-Son Duo, Kumar Viswas already shown the door. But before that, they first sidelined their mentor Anna Hazare and dropped permanently the idea to implement Jan Lok Pal bill they started their agitation for.  Now non of the founding members of AAP is with the party except the King himself who often claimed to take every decision in Gram Sabha, amended party constitution to remain party national convenor till eternity.

Kejriwal will very soon appoint another convenor for Punjab. He will try to use all possible opportunities to cut Maan to size. Most likely Kejriwal will defame him before placing himself or any of his sycophants in CM’s chair as a proxy. He always had that in mind so he made Manish Sisodia as his deputy in Delhi and held no portfolios in the state Government.  

However Punjab is not Delhi, and the self-esteemed citizens of Punjab will never take this lightly.

Beyond Punjab

There is a serious deficit of trust among leaders in the opposition space, the same AAP was the blue-eyed boy for the entire opposition camp when they defeated BJP in the Delhi assembly election. However, nobody even congratulated them after their thumping victory in Punjab. AAPs foray into shared opposition space in Goa, Uttarakhand, Gujarat has rattled the entire opposition leadership. Recently, Kejriwal claimed they will fight in Telangana, so KCR too will no longer extend friendly gestures to Delhi CM.

The success of Punjab could not be replicated elsewhere because in the rest of the states the political space was not that unstable where a new party could sow its seeds. They are fighting almost all elections since their inception be that Urban Local Bodies or for State Assemblies but they have never witnessed the success like Delhi or Punjab anywhere else.

In spite of the similar volatility of Goa, and the presence of dominant minority voters, they could not deliver anything big because BJP got its act together and Congress held its fort. Honestly speaking Congress fought Goa election with a lot more adversities so its winning of 11 seats is much big. In other states that went to the election this year, they lost all their deposits including their projected CM candidate. In Uttarakhand, in spite of anti-incumbency, they could not open an account while Congress raised its count in assembly. In the 2019 Haryana state election, they allied with JJP but lost miserably to BJP and Congress.

There are still some silver linings but that will never make any mark in national politics. The reality is today AAP’s sole MP in LokSabha resigned to become Punjab CM leaving them completely blank in the lower house where the majority of the elected representatives claim stake to form the Government. So those who want to project AAP as Congress’s alternative in the 2024 general election are repeating the same mistakes of the 2014 general election, for which Kejriwal will never forget and forgive psephologist Yogendra Yadav. 

Opportunities

However, this also throws some opportunities for Kejriwal. They can shed the attitude of escapism from responsibility perform and deliver good governance. Nevertheless, if we go by Kejriwal’s track record he will use Punjab to create hype everywhere else until the next general election and he will never give up his street-fighter-a-perpetual-protester image and replicate him as the male version of Mamata Banerji. He will also siphon off the Punjab exchequer's money to fund AAP's expansion plan in the rest of India.

Now time and people will decide the fate of Kejriwal, hope good sense will prevail for the betterment of the general public and nation at large. 

In 2014 During General Election I penned AAP Trilogy which covers their journey so far:

AAP Trilogy: Politics of Opportunism 

AAP Trilogy: First Blood Mission Delhi 

AAP Trilogy: Phenomena Called AAP Begins