Seeing Through Mandate, 2014, An Open Letter to ...

Beyond This Election

After a couple of days of euphoria, I am bit pensive again of course after micro analysis of the results. Beyond reasonable doubt, this is an incredible mandate for Modi powered by many factors both positive and negative, worked in favor of the man of the moment. The BJP and its previous incarnation BJS, in the election fray right from 50's, have gone through many ups & downs and notably few of the landslides of Indira and Rajiv. Never before in the history, a non-Congress party had such a huge mandate nor the Congress suffered such a humiliating decimation. Such was the extent of the loss that the grand old party could not even open its account in 13 states and non of the 6 union territories. In rest of the country, Congress was merely an act of saving face than actually fighting an election for another turn. Well, the figures speak for itself, national tally of 44 while no individual state touching a double digit, turned the national party that ruled over the biggest democracy for past 6 decades into a party of bits and pieces. In the remote North-East too NDA is a much bigger force than combined UPA. The effect of the political devastation is not just limited to Congress but all the Alliance partners, non-alliance sympathizers and road-blockers for Modi's BJP. The likes of Farooq Abdulha, Karuna, Raja, Kanimozi, Raj Thakrey, Mayawati, & Ajit Singh's parties, are cursed and brushed off from entering Parliament as a natural consequence to either aligning or benefiting Congress, the demon. 

Vote/Seat Disparity

While my fellow mates are still celebrating the victory, I would like to draft this thought-full article in this scorching heat because beneath the massive verdict of 282 out of 543, lies the truth of 31% vote share. Although for combined NDA the vote share rises slightly to 38% with a staggering 335 seats but alarmingly that's much bellow 50% mark in popular vote share. However we can neither blame the electorates nor the political parties but our constitution. Had it been a bi-party system we would always have a 50 plus vote share with the party in power. However, in this kind of mandate, its natural for new groups joining the party (celebration) strengthening government's decision making further, also being more representative in nature. In due course KCR, Naveen, and even Jaya would build new bridges for the obvious purpose of managing their own states well. in a similar way, Jagan, Chautala, Soren, and Pawar would bait for Modi as a pure survival instinct. Sooner than later we would witness a super NDA with 400+ seats and close to a comfortable 50% vote share, nevertheless all these formations are temporary and would fizzle out eventually in the time of actual crisis. A noteworthy point here, non of the previous governments including that's led by Nehru, Indira and Rajiv never enjoyed a 50+ vote percentage for any individual party. So any attempt to illegitimatize this mandate is a loser's attempt to mock our very constitution with retrospective impact.  

Opposition Consolidation

Apparently, Mamata's AITC, would virtually occupy the opposition space as Congress' Rahul is a complete misfit even for the leader of opposition. Though she needs Modi's help more often than Modi, while managing the cash strapped state government but her ego on top of vote bank politics never allows her to do so. The worst victims of Tsu-Namo  (Mulayam, Maya, Nitish, Lalu, & Ajit) would potentially make for an national alliance to retain their vote share to pursue the self proclaimed secular politics through minority vote banks. They would probably play a side kick to AITC, Congress combine to fill the vacuum of opposition. Certainly, a very bad situation for our democracy where we need an alliance for opposition.

(Celebration) Party is over!!!

The Congress party is in a catch 22 situation, sooner the better, they need to shun the Gandhi family and look for a formidable leadership from within. After the failure of all the right based welfare schemes ruining our economy, they resorted to all Mandal/Kamandal politics. But the gimmicks of giving reservation to Jats, Muslims or inclusion of Jains in minority never yielded any tangible benefit to them. With the lackluster leadership combine, Sonia-Manmohan-Rahul, they finally played their trump card Priyanka to boost up their fortune but to no avail that failed even more badly. Being a political observer, they in fact have nothing in store that could revive congress when the rival is Modi backed by a strong BJP and a even more stronger RSS. Sensible Sonia already pushing her retirement several times because of her illness but Rahul's reluctance combined with incompetence is turned to be a double whammy for congress when Priyanka already carries the baggage of a tainted Robert Vadra. Few of the intelligent Congress leaders confessed honestly that they were fighting RSS rather than BJP. I think they must have realised this fact that it was easy fighting BJP but not RSS, as that would ensure not only a defeat but a complete annihilation. Well, both RSS and Congress leadership knew it very well and considered this election as a DO or Die kind of fight. However, this would be a grand mistake to write off the grand old party now, as they continue to enjoy a permanent cushion of 20% vote share even in the face of massive negative sentiments. So what they need to do is ramping up by just another 5-10% votes through some engineering or en-cashing negative sentiments. So more importantly from RSS perspective this is also imperative to identify the demography that constitutes this permanent vote base for Congress. Are they serious beneficiaries of Congress party or its policies or this is just a vote for protection for Indian minorities? Nevertheless, all attempts should be made to legitimize the support base by instilling trust in the political system and stopping all consumption of spurious perks.

Governance Not My Cup of Tea

At the hindsight, the AAP's decision to go national was a completely miscalculated political stunt. However, being Kejriwal himself the kind of politics he plays and the medium he uses, this was very natural for them to fight in 400 odd seats through length and breadth of India. Mr.Kejriwal being the only star, was playing to the gallery in national capital while appealing to the audience all across the country. The ninety days of uninterrupted media publicity helped them garnering close to 2% votes i.e. more than many regional powers. However they committed more errors of commission than omission in the 49 days of governance which met its natural death, outweighed by the contradictions of APP's applied politics. To be honest, they never thought of governance so the mandate was like a hot potato that they eventually dropped. Even though the 4 seats from Punjab was a miraculous face saver, they would have drawn a huge blank in this fretful election. However, this serves as a warning who takes voters for granted and manage elections, leaving voters with no options. After all, money, drugs can't win election, so much was the anger that a deserving leader like Arun Jetly too was defeated.

Good Politics, Always welcome!!!

APP's Punjab chapter is a story in itself and a great learning for all, at least to those vocal leaders like Arvind and Sazia that there is enough room for good politics. Arvind failed miserably in his plan to sabotage Modi and getting publicity even while travelling. Two things happened in tandem with each other, Modi ignored Kashi and all his opponents there in his campaign, while all media houses deliberately snubbed him by not playing for his purpose. Even in the course of election campaign they started realizing that they have almost lost all the grounds they seemingly gained in last few months. When it comes to strategy, nobody has better idea than the Parivar, the Sangha Parivar. Everybody thought BJP was bowled out when Arvind resigned from Delhi as that had ostensibly set him free for a nation-wide campaign. However, it was BJP's plan not to support Arvind during the Lokpal fiasco and allowing him to go national. The plan paid off as he was very high and ultimately dry after this election, by ensuring their thickness in Delhi spread thinly across India and virtually leaving no impression anywhere losing almost all deposits. 

Ohh No!!! What an Anti Climax

Personally I am impressed by AAP as a great idea against corruption but unfortunately both AAP and BSP in spite of being incredible ideas are spoiled by useless leaders. Arvind must be feeling very sorry for thousands of AAP supporters who left their jobs relying on its high philosophy, who are now left with nothing but a feeling of letdown in the hands of the one they once looked up to.

Go to Hell Kejriwal

The next few months would see a complete reversal of what happened in last Nov-Dec, the very people who ran a vitriolic campaign against all, would turn their firing direction towards AAP's leadership and leave AAP as if there is a fire broke out in the house. The public would keep a watch on leaders like Ms.Saniyal and Ashutosh Gupta, how far they are committed to public service in their respective constituencies and silence their critics. Their true color would emerge only when they prove themselves in public service without holding the public office and all the media fan fare. Notwithstanding, they always be a force to reckon with in upcoming state elections.

Abhi,  Ek Saath Comunal  Taqatse Ladenge

Coming back to my concern about the animated 400+ mandate, as all the huge mandates are always followed by a colossal fall, a political science books could be a good reference on this. The concern is quite legitimate as BJP's vote share of 31% is very vulnerable sitting on a large number of votes of hope. Secondly this would threaten all the losers to club their strength together in order to flip the balance of equation. The process has already been started JDU now reconciling with RJD, for a long term national goal to prevent Modi. This is a kind of worst nightmare for even RSS, if this kind of consolidation happens at a national level no body can stop them coming back to power again. In such a scenario, BSP, SP and CONG may fight together in UP leaving BJP completely dry. This is one factor that worked positively in favor of BJP in last election, as all these parties fought separately. Had it not been the arrogance and complacency of Gogoi in Assam, AIDUF would have fought in alliance with Congress giving an altogether grim picture for BJP. 

A Desert MODIfied To a Solar Power Plant... 

On the vote of hope, no body has the right to take a free ride, unless the hope is fulfilled, you have to face Kejriwal's fate. Then everybody would like to capitalize on the negative sentiment and then they can even get votes without promising anything. Not being cynical here, I have all faiths in the leadership of Modi as a man of delivery and development. However the situation demands to accentuate the delivery at a speed that would overwhelm the very electorates, while they would cast their votes in 2019. Modi needs to pull all his resources to work 24/7, restlessly delivering the dreams that we all are aspiring for. I would suggest Modi, to consider the human resource, few millions in size, that's qualified, trained, and particularly young in demography but may be still unemployed. This powerful population could be entrusted with national projects ranging from connecting rivers to cleaning the filth, after all this is our nation and it's high time we start rebuilding it.

A wise man always learns from others mistakes, mistakes become firm commandments when they come from your own family. National security and corruption are issues that stands BJP out, so never ever think of conceding a self goal at least on these 2 fronts. A good thing about Modi's future ministry, that's free from the baggage of Bajpai, but in order to remain taint-less trade carefully when the likes of Tehlka & Cobrapost would be very active alongside few paid NGOs to discredit the government.

Recruitment In Progress

Usually, when a party remains in power its organisation is worst hit, as everybody wants to enjoy the power and nobody is interested in sweating out for the party. Modi should entrust right people managing the organisational affair while keeping the cadres in good humor. Not just BJP cadres all affiliates from RSS to Ramdev, who helped in the mass mobilization should continue with their patronage for the more bigger battles ahead when the possible consolidation happens in the opposition camp. While I look at politics, I see typically 3 types of inclusions into a political party. The heir apparent from political families, retired professional and party turn coats. There should be conscious effort to bring in fresh bloods with brand new ideas, into politics rather than political turn coats. Modi should heavily invest in next generation leaders to carry the baton of development forward when he retires. When it comes to political successors, I am mesmerized by Advani looking at the battalion of able leadership that he nurtured in last few decades. From Modi to Jetly, Susma and Shivraj all were once proteges of the man of steel. So the leadership should simultaneously be working on the next Modi in making rather than political pets.  

Organisation Is The Only Way out 

The BJP should work along side RSS to make new inroads onto the areas which are potentially fertile in this election campaign but a good harvest could not be reaped. Prospective good showing in states like WB, Odisha, Andhra, Kerla or TN could potentially work as an insurance against any possible upsets in Hindi heartland in next general election because of anti-incumbency. BJP should handle its allies with utmost care, as only a strong BJP could attract good allies not the other way round. The party has enough numbers to set its own rule and keep boosting up its organisation in states like Andhra, where all the major players are struggling to gain some ground. At least they should not repeat the mistake of projecting an alliance partner (read as Nitish) at the peril of their own. In this matter Congress handles its allies better, by coercing them to support Congress even if they have less number. In a nut shell, the battle is not over yet at least till 2019 general election, and all resources should be used in the right earnest to repeat the performance again or get repelled in a similar fashion. 

We all know how corporate money was lavishly used in this campaign but we accepted this truth as a price that needs to be paid in the national interest. However, this no way authorises the government to play in the hands of corporates, as this is a vote for hope capitalisation rather than crony capitalism. Misreading of this mandate would have serious implications but then there would be no chance of bouncing back again.



Vande Matarm!!!